RBS uber-bear issues fresh alert on global stock markets

I know absolutely nothing about the strategist Bob Janjuah so I know nothing about his track record.  However, on this one, he seems to be following in the tradition of Peter Schiff and others like him. Most of the people that I’ve followed over the past few years have called current events correctly, which makes you want to at least consider their view on future events. Nearly everyone that I keep up with predicts some type of downturn in September/October. This seems to be just one more nail in the recovery coffin. Or maybe it will just lead to a self-fulfilling prophecy.

From The Telegraph:

Britain’s Uber-bear is growling again. After predicting a torrid “relief rally” over the early summer, Bob Janjuah at Royal Bank of Scotland is advising clients to take profits in global equity and commodity markets and prepare for another storm as winter nears.

“We are now in the middle of a parabolic spike up,” he said in his latest confidential note to clients.

“I expect this risk rally to continue into – and maybe through – a large part of August. What happens after that? The next ugly leg of the bear market begins as we get into the July through September ‘tipping zone’, driven by the failure of the data to validate the V (shaped recovery) that is now fully priced into markets.”

The key indicators to watch are business spending on equipment (Capex), incomes, jobs, and profits. Only a “surge higher” in these gauges can justify current asset prices. Results that are merely “less bad” will not suffice.

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